Can Tweets Predict TV Ratings?

We set out to investigate whether TV ratings and mentions of TV programmes on the Twitter social media platform are correlated. If such a correlation exists, Twitter may be used as an alternative source for estimating viewer popularity. Moreover, the Twitter-based rating estimates may be generated during the programme, or even before. We count the occurrences of programme-specific hashtags in an archive of Dutch tweets of eleven popular TV shows broadcast in the Netherlands in one season, and perform correlation tests. Overall we find a strong correlation of 0.82; the correlation remains strong, 0.79, if tweets are counted a half hour before broadcast time. However, the two most popular TV shows account for most of the positive effect; if we leave out the single and second most popular TV shows, the correlation drops to being moderate to weak. Also, within a TV show, correlations between ratings and tweet counts are mostly weak, while correlations between TV ratings of the previous and next shows are strong. In absence of information on previous shows, Twitter-based counts may be a viable alternative to classic estimation methods for TV ratings. Estimates are more reliable with more popular TV shows.